Yesterday suddenly surged. The direct reason is that Iran has softened its stance and has resubmitted a peace-talks proposal to the United States, temporarily easing geopolitical tensions.


This is a rebound that has been propped up by the news flow, not a trend reversal.
There is likely another “liquidity-grab” trigger point afterward. When the U.S. and Iran officially announce they have reached a settlement, market sentiment will surge again.
After that, it will be the typical “good news fully priced in” scenario, with a very high possibility of a deep correction.
It has already been rising for a month, with a cumulative gain of more than 25%.
At this level, chasing longs doesn’t look worthwhile no matter how you look at the risk-reward ratio. Instead, it’s better to open short positions in batches on rallies, since the risk is relatively smaller.
Also, Trump is tentatively scheduled to visit China on May 14. What impact could this have?
In 2017, Trump’s visit to China briefly boosted sensitive risk assets on the short term. So this time, it’s still possible to see a similar replay.
If the U.S. and Iran really reach an agreement, crude oil could likely crash by at least 20%. And $BTC would be pulled up again by sentiment.
The crude-oil short story hasn’t been finished yet; the high-altitude opportunity has only just begun. $BTC ‌#Gate广场五月交易分享
BTC-0.08%
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