$78,400 for Bitcoin, do you dare to buy?

Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) attract $6.3 billion in one day, institutions are pouring in like crazy, and Morgan Stanley secretly added 286 Bitcoin— but what about the price? From $62,000 in February to now $78,000, an increase of nearly 30%, yet is the annual performance still green? No, the annual performance is still negative. Is it a bull market, or a last escape opportunity?
Let's look at the surface: it rose, but didn't reach the full height.
In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin's price fluctuated by 0.02%, reaching $78,367, as if it didn't move. In April, it rose by 15%, from $62,000 and rebounded strongly, but overall this year is still a loss. Do you think the bull market has started? When you open your account, you see you're still on the path to recovery.
First: institutions are crazy, and ETFs are exploding.
On May 1, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs (ETFs) netted $6.3 billion in one day, recording the highest monthly figure in 2026. The BlackRock IBIT fund absorbs money as if it were an endless hole, and Morgan Stanley secretly increased its stake to 2,620 Bitcoin, worth a total of $200 million.
Second: half the event after two years, and supply is being consumed.
Half of the Bitcoin occurs in April 2024, with only 450 Bitcoin produced daily by miners, worth about $35 million. However, ETFs are swallowing $6.3 billion a day, a simple calculation shows that the daily purchase volume is enough to mine Bitcoin for 18 days. There is a supply gap here, so why isn't the price rising? Is it your fear and panic?
Third: $80,000 is a psychological barrier, and also the last line of defense.
Between $78,500 and $80,000, there is a $1 billion sell wall. This isn't a size small investors can set, but by big investors waiting to buy then sell, or are they also hesitant? If we break through $80,000, then $85-35M will open; if we can't break through, the price will return to $76,000, maybe $73,000.
On one hand, institutions are buying insanely, ETFs are exploding, and supply decreases with the halving.
On the other hand, there is massive selling pressure at $80,000, futures positions are rising, and there is excessive buying at the upper Bollinger Band.
The critical level is $78,500, the dividing line between rise and fall.
If you're a short-term trader: buy near the current price or pull back to $76,500–$77,000, with a stop loss at $75,500, and aim to reduce positions at $80,000. If broken, follow through at $85–$200M.
If you're a long-term investor: invest regularly (DCA), gradually buy in the $76,500–$79,000 range. Ark Invest says Bitcoin's market value could reach $16 trillion by 2030, while now it's just over $2 trillion.
Bitcoin is shifting from a "speculative asset" to "digital gold," and most people still use a speculative mindset on small cryptocurrencies to buy #Z .