The bets on "Seoul Mayor" and "Lee Jae-myung stepping down" that appeared on Polymarket... Korean politics has become an asset worth 46 billion won.

Headquartered in New York, USA, the blockchain prediction market Polymarket has officially begun trading on Korean political events.
The cumulative trading volume of the “2026 Seoul Mayor Election Winner” market has reached approximately $33.67 million (about 46 billion Korean won), and on April 24th, a new market was opened for “Lee Jae-myung to step down within 2026.”
The direction of Korean politics is shifting toward financial assets tradable in global capital markets.

According to our analysis, as of May 2nd, the betting distribution in the Seoul mayor market is: Democratic Party candidate Zheng Yuanwu at 87%, People Power Party candidate Woo Seok-hyun at 14%.
The probabilities for other 13 candidates, including Ahn Cheol-soo, Han Dong-hoon, Jo Guk, Ro Kyung-won, Kang Hoon-sik, etc., are all below 1%.
Zheng Yuanwu, head of Seongdong District Office, defeated Park Joo-min and Rep. Kim Hyun-ki in the Democratic Party’s internal primary on April 9th, and was confirmed as the final candidate;
Woo Seok-hyun was designated as the People Power Party candidate on April 18th.

Market prices fluctuate in real-time based on political events.
In mid-April, JTBC polls showed Zheng’s support rate at 50%, Woo’s at 34%, and the market subsequently favored Zheng.
On April 14th, after President Lee Jae-myung publicly praised Zheng Yuanwu with a 92.9% resident satisfaction rate, Zheng’s probability surged from 84% to 91%.
A single statement by a political figure is immediately translated into capital prices.

“What is a prediction market”

Polymarket is a blockchain-based trading platform where users can bet on the outcomes of future events.
It uses buy-sell contracts of “Yes” or “No,” with prices representing the collective probability assessment of market participants.
Zheng Yuanwu’s “Yes” price is 87 cents, implying the market believes his chances of winning are 87%.
If the event occurs, “Yes” holders receive $1; otherwise, they get $0.

The essence of this model involves real funds.
Polls have no cost for respondents, but prediction market participants who judge incorrectly must bear direct financial losses.
Therefore, the academic consensus is that prediction markets often provide faster and more accurate signals than polls.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released a study on stablecoins in March this year, using Polymarket data as an academic tool to measure the probability of the U.S. GENIUS Act passing.
Polymarket also achieved a decisive breakthrough in the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
While major polls still predicted a close race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, Polymarket continued to reflect Trump’s advantage in prices and ultimately made accurate predictions.

Korean society has also experienced Polymarket’s operation firsthand.
After former President Yoon Suk-yeol declared a state of emergency in December 2024, Polymarket quickly assessed the impeachment possibility with high probability, and the outcome was as the market predicted.
The newly opened market for President Lee Jae-myung’s impeachment and removal indicates that the same mechanism has begun operating again against the current president.

Explosive growth and fierce domestic debate in the U.S.

Polymarket and its American competitor Kalshi have experienced explosive growth over the past year.
Kalshi holds about 90% of the domestic U.S. market share, while Polymarket dominates internationally.
In 2025, both companies spent around $1 million on lobbying activities in the U.S. federal government.
Both have hired Donald Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., as an advisor, and Polymarket even opened an office called “The Situation Room” in downtown Washington, D.C.

However, growth has also sparked intense controversy.
The core disputes focus on two points: insider trading issues and gambling regulation.

Insider trading incidents have caused significant shock in U.S. society.
U.S. Army Sergeant Garon Ken Van Dyke was indicted by the Department of Justice for allegedly profiting about $410k on Polymarket using confidential information obtained from his direct involvement in covert military operations to overthrow the Maduro regime in Venezuela.
The process of his discovery was straightforward: he created his Polymarket account using his personal email.
Considering that most traders on Polymarket hide their identities with cryptocurrency wallets, making tracking nearly impossible, this is a rare case.

During the final days of President Joe Biden’s term, an anonymous Polymarket trader accurately predicted four pardons Biden would announce, earning about $300k.
Multiple suspicious transactions were also confirmed in bets related to military actions in Iran during the Trump administration.
On April 30th, the U.S. Senate unanimously passed rules prohibiting senators from trading prediction markets.
Kalshi also discovered three traders betting on their own preferred candidates and imposed fines and trading suspensions.

Gambling regulation issues are even more complex.
Approximately 90% of Kalshi’s trading volume and 38% of Polymarket’s come from sports betting.
Over 20 U.S. states have classified Polymarket and Kalshi as unlicensed sports gambling operators and issued shutdown orders, but both companies argue they are “event contract” exchanges regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), not subject to state gambling laws.
In April, a U.S. federal appellate court ruled that New Jersey regulators have no authority to block Kalshi’s betting operations, supporting their stance.

The involvement of a16z… “Prediction markets are price discovery mechanisms”

At the center of this debate, Silicon Valley venture capital giant Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) has sided with Kalshi and Polymarket.
In April, a16z submitted an 18-page opinion to the CFTC, claiming that state-level regulation of prediction markets is “seriously obstructing fair market access.”

a16z’s reasoning includes two points.
First, the price system of prediction markets is a “unique form of price discovery,” capable of revealing the probabilities of uncertain events to the market.
Second, blockchain-based prediction markets are more transparent than traditional exchanges due to on-chain transaction auditability.
CFTC Chair Mike Selig announced that event contracts in prediction markets fall under “swaps,” within the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction, and has initiated lawsuits against five state regulators.

Conversely, U.S. Democratic lawmakers have taken the opposite stance.
On April 30th, led by Senator Jeff Merkley, a group of Democratic senators sent a letter to the CFTC demanding a “ban on event contracts involving elections, wars, military actions, and government activities.”
Legislation such as the “Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act” and the “STOP Corrupt Bets Act” has been introduced in both houses of Congress.

Interestingly, prediction market traders themselves estimate only an 11% chance that prediction markets for sports betting will be federally banned in 2026.
They even price political threats against themselves, which in turn become signals of political outcomes—a self-referential structure.

Three issues Korea faces

The appearance of Korean political events on Polymarket is no longer just curiosity.
It signifies that Korea’s political outcomes have become targets for global capital betting.
The Seoul mayoral election involves 46B Korean won in funds, and the possibility of the current president’s impeachment or removal is now being bet upon.
The betting markets continuously evaluate political events in real-time, and these prices feed back into political analysis and media reports.

Polymarket’s AI summaries mention that, regarding President Lee Jae-myung’s tenure sustainability, factors such as “wartime” level economic controls, a bill increasing the Supreme Court to 26 justices, and plans to criticize media censorship are listed as political risk factors.
Regardless of their accuracy, the market’s evaluation has become a variable that could influence Korea’s risk premium in the global capital market.

Thus, Korean society faces three fundamental issues.

First, is there a regulatory framework for the phenomenon of Korean politics being traded on foreign platforms?
Second, does this form of market have a legal basis for legitimate operation within Korea?
Some assessments suggest that Korea’s Capital Markets Act and Criminal Law’s gambling provisions do not clearly cover blockchain-based event contracts.
Even in the U.S., the CFTC’s jurisdiction claim is still in the early court validation stage.

Third, and most fundamentally, is the act of pricing political outcomes a normal information discovery process or the commodification of democracy?
Economist Robin Hanson, who proposed prediction market theory, argues that revealing hidden information through insider trading is a core function of markets.
Critics, on the other hand, counter that when political decisions and their legitimacy become objects of capital betting, the essence of democracy is compromised.

Polymarket has transformed Korean politics into tradable assets.
What this transformation means for Korean society has yet to be fully discussed.
However, capital has already begun pricing Korea’s politics.
The Seoul mayoral election on June 3rd is not just a personnel decision but also a financial event settling about 410k Korean won in funds in the global prediction market.

Perhaps the discussion is already too late, but the outcome is arriving swiftly.