Yesterday suddenly surged. The direct reason is that Iran has softened its stance—resubmitting its proposals for peace talks to the United States—and geopolitical tensions have been temporarily cooled.

This is a rebound propped up by news momentum, not a trend reversal.

There will most likely be another upside pull-in (a liquidity trap) point later. Once the U.S. and Iran formally announce that they’ve reached a reconciliation, market sentiment will surge again.

After that, it’s the classic scenario of “good news fully priced in,” with a very high possibility of a deep correction.

It has already been rising for a month straight, with a cumulative gain of more than 25%.

Chasing longs from this level doesn’t look worthwhile no matter how you look at the risk-reward ratio. Instead, short positions built up in batches on rallies carry relatively lower risk.

Also, “the boss” is tentatively scheduled to visit China on May 14. What impact could this have?

In 2017, when “the boss” visited China, sensitive risk assets got a short-term pop. So this time, it’s still possible that a similar situation reappears.

If the U.S. and Iran really do reach an agreement, crude oil could collapse by at least 20% again—and $BTC could be pulled up another round by sentiment.

The crude oil shorts’ bearish story isn’t finished yet; the high-altitude shorting opportunity is only just beginning. $BTC #WCTC交易王PK