Not raising interest rates is considered good news? You might be celebrating too early; the Federal Reserve is currently "internal fighting escalating."

"Not raising interest rates = the bull market takes off," this is many people's intuition.
But this time, maybe we need to question that.
Why? Because this pause is not about "reaching a consensus," but—
👉 too many opinions, better to hold off for now.
It's like a group of people discussing where to eat:
Some want hotpot, some want salad, and the final result is—
"Let's not eat first."
It sounds reasonable, but the problem is:
👉 this shows the disagreements are already significant.
The Federal Reserve is now divided into two camps:
* Hawkish: inflation is not dead, rate hikes are not over
* Dovish: the economy is already struggling
Most importantly: both sides have data to support their views.
This turns policy into a game of "who has the louder voice wins."
What does the market do?
It can only keep adjusting expectations.
So you see:
Yesterday betting on rate cuts, today starting to worry about another hike.
This is not volatility; it's—
👉 faith collapse trading.
The deeper issue is:
When policymakers themselves are wavering, the market begins to "make decisions for them" in advance.
For example:
Long-term interest rates fall first, stocks rise first, then suddenly reverse.
Behind this is actually one sentence:
👉 no one trusts the future path anymore.
So, not raising interest rates is not the key.
The key is:
👉 they are no longer a unified team.
And once policy loses consistency, the market will start amplifying any tiny sign of change.
That is the real risk.
#美联储利率不变但内部分歧加剧