The Strait of Hormuz controls one-third of the world's maritime oil transportation lifeline. Everyone is worried about the outbreak of conflict; once war ignites, oil prices will soar to $150, inflation will spiral out of control, the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates, and Bitcoin will also experience a major decline.

But just as everyone holds their breath, Iran hands over a piece of paper.
A piece of paper that makes oil prices bow and risk capital rise.
"Iran has submitted a new proposal to restart negotiations with the United States." Just this one sentence.
Once the news broke, Brent crude oil slightly fell by 26 cents, and the market already understood: no war in the short term.
Market logic immediately reversed: geopolitical tensions eased, oil prices fell back, safe-haven funds withdrew from commodities, and shifted into tech stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin surged nearly 3%, stabilizing at $78,700, with U.S. stocks rising in tandem, and market risk appetite fully rebounded.
This has never been a technical breakthrough; rather, geopolitical factors have dominated market rises and falls.
Gold is a traditional safe-haven asset; the more chaotic the situation, the higher the increase. But currently, Bitcoin is essentially high-beta digital oil, negatively correlated with oil prices:
Geopolitical tension → oil prices rise → inflation heats up → liquidity tightens → Bitcoin comes under pressure
Geopolitical easing → oil prices fall → risk aversion exits commodities → funds flood into growth risk assets (tech stocks + cryptocurrencies).
Now Bitcoin is approaching the critical $80k mark. Once it stabilizes, follow-on funds will flood in.
Institutions predict that breaking through $80k will strengthen upward momentum, and after $85,000, the trend may reverse.
Remember, the current rally is built on a very weak foundation, not relying on halving benefits or ETF inflows, but solely on the steady progress of Iran-U.S. negotiations.
Market participation can be moderate, but there's no need to obsess over various technical indicators; focus on news about Iran's situation.
Iran tension → Bitcoin dips
Iran easing → Bitcoin surges past $80,000