These days, I see people saying "Stablecoin supply increases = it's about to take off" and "ETF inflows = the bull market is back" as if they are facts. Honestly, correlation does not equal causation. Money coming in could be going to exchanges, market makers, or just sitting off-chain waiting for opportunities, which makes a big difference. Sometimes, stablecoins are more like a mood thermometer; when it's hot, they rise, and when it's cold, they might just be sitting there in a different shell.

I instead think: if these off-chain funds really want to increase their positions, would they be willing to gradually add in phases during volatility, rather than chasing in with a big bullish candle? The same applies to the collapse points of chain games—inflation + studio + coin price spiral, no matter how many "new users" there are, they can't save it.

A couple of days ago, I even considered quitting and uninstalling the trading app because it was too noisy... but then I thought, I don't rely on short-term trading anyway. My positions, cycles, and discipline are all set, so I can just turn off notifications. That's it for now.