Is Bitcoin no longer falling? Can it really keep rising, and is a crude oil crash imminent? Let’s take a quick look.

1. First, let's talk about BTC. It started a significant rebound yesterday, because Iran backed down and resubmitted peace talks with the U.S., easing the conflict. As a result, Bitcoin rebounded accordingly, and our short position on crude oil also dropped 10%. So, can we still short now?
2. Bitcoin looks more like a dead cat bounce, pushed up by positive news. Personally, I will re-enter short positions near the resistance levels of 79,000 and 81k, on a long-term basis with low leverage. After the U.S.-Iran officially reach an agreement, there might be another push up, which would be a good opportunity to go short. After that, I think the positive momentum will exhaust itself and start to pull back.
3. After all, BTC has been rising for a month straight, with a gain of up to 25%. The risk of chasing the rally is much greater than the risk of shorting on the high. Also, we previously considered the potential positive impact of U.S.-Iran talks when shorting, so we took profits at lower prices multiple times, locking in gains, and waiting for rebounds to short again. I believe everyone remembers this.
4. Now that a decent rebound has arrived, I see it as an opportunity. For BTC, I won’t go long before May 8th, but after the 8th, I might look for lower entry points to set up short-term long positions, because Trump is tentatively visiting China on May 14th. When he visited China in 2017, both BTC and U.S. stocks experienced short-term surges.
5. But that’s an operation for seven days later. For now, I’m still trying to short on rallies. Actually, our short on BTC is hedged because we are also short on crude oil CLUSDT. For example, yesterday’s positive news for U.S.-Iran caused BTC to rebound 2.5%, but crude oil dropped nearly 10%, which means bigger profits.
6. So, our BTC short and crude oil short form a small investment portfolio to hedge risks. If the U.S. and Iran really reach an agreement, crude oil could plummet 20%, making big money. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin rebound justifies setting up a second short position.