Is Bitcoin no longer falling? Can it really keep rising, and is a crude oil crash imminent? Let’s take a quick look.

1. First, let's talk about BTC. It started a sharp rebound yesterday, because Iran backed down and resubmitted peace talks with the U.S., easing tensions. So Bitcoin responded with a bounce, and our short position on crude oil also dropped 10%. Can we still short now?
2. Bitcoin looks more like a dead cat bounce, pushed up by positive news. Personally, I will re-enter short positions near the resistance levels of 79,000 and 81k, with a long-term low leverage. After the U.S. and Iran officially reach an agreement, there might be another push up, which could be a good opportunity to go short. After that, I think the bullish momentum will exhaust itself and start to pull back.
3. After all, BTC has been rising for a month straight, with a gain of up to 25%. The risk of chasing the rally is much greater than the risk of shorting on the high. We previously considered the potential positive impact of a U.S.-Iran peace deal when shorting, so we took profits at lower prices multiple times, locking in gains, and waiting for a rebound to short again. I believe everyone remembers this.
4. Now that a decent rebound has arrived, I see it as an opportunity. For BTC, I won’t go long before May 8th, but after that, I might look for lower entry points to set up short-term longs, because Trump is tentatively visiting China on May 14th. Back in 2017, when he visited China, BTC and U.S. stocks both saw short-term surges.
5. But that’s a move planned for seven days later. For now, I’m still trying to short on the rallies. Actually, our short on BTC is hedged because we’re also short on crude oil CLUSDT. For example, yesterday’s positive news for U.S.-Iran caused BTC to rebound 2.5%, but crude oil dropped nearly 10%, which means bigger profits.
6. So our BTC and crude oil shorts form a small investment portfolio to hedge risks. If the U.S. and Iran really reach an agreement, crude oil could plummet 20%, making big money. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin rebound justifies setting up a second short position. $BTC ‌
~#Gate广场五月交易分享