#Gate广场五月交易分享

The Federal Reserve has just announced the most fractured policy decision in 34 years, and the cracks flowing through the FOMC are reshaping the macro landscape where Bitcoin is traded.

On April 29, the Fed kept the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, the third consecutive pause in 2026. The outcome was generally expected; CME FedWatch shows a 100% probability of no change. What was unexpected was the number of votes: 8–4. Four dissenters. The most divided FOMC decision since October 1992. Three regional Fed presidents—Beth Hammack (Cleveland), Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis), and Lorie Logan (Dallas)—objected to the continued easing bias in the statement, essentially warning that signals of future rate cuts are too early when inflation has been above target for five consecutive years. Meanwhile, Fed Board member Stephen Miran disagreed, favoring an immediate 25 basis point cut. This crack is not subtle; it is structural.

The statement itself mentioned "developments in the Middle East" creating "a high level of uncertainty," specifically highlighting the impact of Iran conflict on global energy prices. But dissenting officials explained in subsequent comments that inflation is not only high due to oil; core price pressures are broad enough that some policymakers believe that raising interest rates, not lowering them, may be the right solution, even at the risk of weakening the labor market. This language is a direct warning to the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, who confirmed his nomination before the Senate Banking Committee on the same day with a 13–11 party-line vote.

Warsh faces a highly debated legacy. Powell’s leadership ends on May 15, though he will remain on the Board of Governors due to legal action against him that "left me with no choice." Warsh promised a "regime change" in his confirmation hearing on April 21, including fewer policy meetings per year and a new inflation framework. But three hawkish dissenters sent a clear signal: regional Fed presidents fearing Warsh will advocate for lower interest rates have already begun drawing lines. Senator Elizabeth Warren called him a "Trump sock puppet," while Senator Thom Tillis only lifted the blockade on his nomination after the DOJ agreed to delay Powell’s investigation to the Fed inspector general. Warsh could be confirmed in time for the June FOMC, but the committee he inherits is already divided.

For Bitcoin, the immediate reaction was sharp. BTC dropped from around $76,200 to below $75,000 in the first hour, touching an intraday low of $74,937 before stabilizing near $75,760. This movement triggered futures liquidations of $182 million in one hour (85% long positions), with $508 million wiped out in 24 hours. The S&P 500 also declined 0.4%. But since then, BTC has recovered to around $78,162 as this was written, reflecting how markets have recalibrated: rate hold expectations are already priced in, but the depth of internal divisions and the implications that rate cuts may be delayed further are still understood by traders.

The macro outlook estimates have shifted dramatically. At least eight major brokerage firms, including J.P. Morgan, HSBC, and Morgan Stanley, now forecast no rate cuts in 2026. Morgan Stanley explicitly lowered their previous forecast of two 25 basis point cuts this year, shifting to the first reduction only in 2027. The Kalshi prediction market assigns about a 40% chance of no cuts at all in 2026. Moody’s Mark Zandi reversed his earlier forecast of three cuts in the first half, now saying he’s unsure if the Fed will cut this year. Eight other brokerages still expect a total easing of 25–75 basis points, but the consensus has clearly shifted from "June cuts" to "higher for longer."

For crypto, this is a double-edged signal. On one side, high sustained interest rates suppress risk appetite and strengthen the wind against the dollar for short-term Bitcoin momentum. On the other, institutional pathways continue to widen relentlessly. Inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs in April reached $2.44 billion, the strongest month of 2026 and nearly double the $1.32 billion in March. Total ETF inflows have reached $58.5 billion, with total AUM around $102 billion. BlackRock’s IBIT alone attracted over $2 billion in April. The Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust (MSBT), launched on April 8, recorded inflows of $163 million without outflows, indicating genuine demand. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley’s wealth management division, managing $7.35 trillion AUM, now officially recommends Bitcoin allocations of 2%–4% for client portfolios. If widely adopted, this recommendation alone could represent a much larger underlying demand than current ETF flows.

The accumulation strategy continues: 3,273 BTC bought between April 20–26 at an average price of $77,906, totaling about $255 million. Total holdings now reach 818,334 BTC. The preferred STRC instrument of the company has grown from zero to $8.5 billion in just nine months, the fastest-growing credit instrument in the world, according to Michael Saylor. BlackRock clients, meanwhile, saw a brief reversal on April 29, selling $112.22 million worth of BTC via IBIT before resuming accumulation on May 1 with purchases of $18.92 million.

Technically, Bitcoin is at a turning point. The 4-hour chart shows bullish MA alignment (MA7 > MA30 > MA120), but the CCI at 108.6 and Williams %R at -19.4 both indicate overbought conditions. The daily MACD shows a divergence that pushed the price to new lows while momentum bars rose, a pattern often preceding reversal attempts. Bollinger Bands have narrowed to a 30-day minimum of 5,884 points—the tightest range in a month. When this band is squeezed so tightly, explosive breakouts follow; the question is the direction. Support is at $74,937 (post-FOMC low), with the 20-day moving average near $75,664. Resistance at $79,000–$80,000 remains the upper boundary repeatedly tested without breakthrough. Volume increases with price, a healthy sign, but the Fear & Greed Index shows a reading of 39, in the fear zone, even as sentiment is split with 55% positive versus 26% negative on social media, with discussion volume increasing 2.3 times over the past three days.

The Fed maintains its line. But the line itself is cracking, and those cracks are signals that crypto traders should heed. A divided central bank means policy uncertainty, and policy uncertainty means volatility. Whether Warsh accelerates easing or hawkish dissenters win, Bitcoin’s next macro chapter will not be written by a united committee, but by the debated one. Prepare for a wider range, not a continuation of the range.