I just learned about a quite important concept that many people often overlook when investing in crypto – that is token unlock. Simply put, this is the process where tokens that are locked from the project's launch gradually get released into the market according to a specific schedule called a vesting schedule.

These token unlocks can come from various sources: the development team, venture investors, advisors, or even community rewards. Initially, locking tokens is to control supply, create price stability, and prevent early investors from dumping their holdings for quick profits.

The interesting part is that token unlocks are not always a bad thing. In fact, they have a strong impact on cryptocurrency prices because when a large amount of tokens are released at once, holders may sell to take profits, creating significant selling pressure. However, the final outcome depends on three main factors.

The first is market psychology. When investors know an unlock is about to happen, they often sell beforehand to avoid risk, putting downward pressure on the price in advance. The second is the scale of the unlock – if the unlocked tokens represent a high proportion of the circulating supply, the impact will be stronger. The third is the recipients of the tokens. If most go to the team, advisors, or early investors, the likelihood of selling for profit is higher. Conversely, if allocated to the community, the reaction could be more positive.

Looking at real examples, TRUMP coin is a quite interesting case. Recently, when a 40 million token unlock occurred, accounting for about 20% of the circulating supply, the market feared selling pressure. But afterward, the price rebounded strongly, especially with positive news. Currently, TRUMP is trading around $2.27 with quite stable volatility.

The path of Aptos (APT) is different. Through three unlocks, this project shows a repeating pattern: the price drops before the unlock, then gradually rises and peaks right when the unlock happens, creating a positive market sentiment. However, the third unlock was disrupted by a sharp Bitcoin decline. Currently, APT is at $0.99 with a 24-hour volatility of -1.68%.

To avoid surprises, you need to know the unlock schedule of the projects you hold in advance. There are some reputable tools to track this: Tokenomist provides detailed unlock schedules, DeFiLlama allows filtering by date and amount, or you can follow directly from the project's X, Discord, Medium channels.

But here’s the key point – not every token unlock causes a price drop. Don’t see all unlocks as bad signals. Instead, analyze carefully: who will receive the tokens, whether they have an incentive to sell, and if there’s any accompanying news. Combining unlock schedule tracking with technical analysis and news will give you a better basis for making smart decisions. That’s how to turn token unlocks into opportunities rather than risks.