⚠️ HashiChain Hourly Aggregated News Brief:

Reporting period: 19:00 - 20:00
🔥 OPEC+ to increase production by about 188,000 barrels/day in June; market still bullish on oil prices
Sources say that seven countries within OPEC+ have, in principle, reached an agreement, planning to raise their oil production targets in June by about 188,000 barrels/day—close to last month’s 206,000 barrels/day figure after excluding the UAE. The UAE exited OPEC+ on May 1. Due to the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the production increase is mostly symbolic. Market prediction data from Polymarket shows a 75% probability that the WTI crude oil daily closing price will reach $110, a 45% probability to reach $120, and a 22% probability to reach $130, with the market still expecting a sharp rise in oil prices.
🔥 Federal Reserve “rumor mill”: the interest-rate path faces a critical turn, shifting from rate-cut signals to a neutral wait-and-see stance
On May 2, Federal Reserve “rumor mill” Nick Timiraos wrote that the internal debate over the Fed’s interest-rate path has reached a critical turning point. Officials are no longer debating when to resume rate cuts; instead, they are discussing the conditions for raising rates. After Wednesday’s policy meeting, Dallas Fed President Logan, Cleveland Fed President Harker, and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari officially raised objections, opposing wording that implies “a higher likelihood of rate cuts next.” Powell acknowledged that the committee had “intense discussions,” with its stance shifting from slightly dovish to neutral, and said the opposition’s arguments are “completely well-founded.” The core factor driving the shift is the ongoing energy shock caused by the substantial closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Kashkari said that if the strait does not quickly resume navigation, it may be necessary to implement a series of rate hikes. Former Fed economist William English pointed out that with inflation rising, current interest rates are being held steady, which in effect amounts to passive easing. It is rare in Fed history for three officials to object to policy wording; the last similar case dates back to September 2020. The debate will be continued by Kevin Warch, who will take over as chair in mid-May.
🔥 Iran’s judicial chief: will not avoid talks with the United States, but firmly opposes coercion
On May 2, Iran’s judicial chief Ejei said that Iran does not avoid negotiations with the United States, but firmly opposes U.S. coercion. He noted that negotiations are logical, but that does not mean accepting the U.S.’s demands for dictating terms, and it also cannot tolerate threats as a means. Meanwhile, Iran does not want war, and it does not want the war to continue. (CCTV International News)