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The "interest rate cut expectations" might really be about to change. ⚠
Nick Timiraos, known as the "mouthpiece of the Federal Reserve," recently revealed that the internal sentiment within the Fed has started to shift noticeably. The current discussion is no longer about "when to cut interest rates," but rather—"is there a possibility of raising rates again." 😳
The most intriguing part this time is that there are clear disagreements within the Federal Reserve. Several officials, including the Dallas Fed President and the Minneapolis Fed President, no longer want to send signals to the market that "a rate cut is more likely next," but believe that: the next move could be either a rate cut or a rate hike.
Even Jerome Powell, who is about to step down, has begun to emphasize one term: 👉 "neutral stance."
What does that mean? Simply put: the Federal Reserve is gradually withdrawing its previously dovish attitude, and if inflation worsens again in the future, a rate hike cannot be ruled out. 📈
This actually signals a very dangerous message for the global markets.
Because over the past year, the reason many assets have been able to hold up is fundamentally because the market has always believed that "the U.S. will eventually cut rates and loosen policy." Now, if this logic begins to waver:
📉 U.S. stocks may come under pressure
📉 Gold may experience increased volatility at high levels
📉 The crypto market will also be affected by liquidity shocks
Especially in the crypto world, many people always think that the bull market depends only on ETFs and halving, but in reality, what truly determines Bitcoin's direction is global liquidity. As long as interest rates stay high or even rise again, market funding costs will continue to increase, and risk assets will naturally suffer. 💰
But on the other hand, we should not ignore 👇
If the Fed starts discussing "raising rates again," it also indicates that they are still worried about inflation not being contained. And once the market begins to worry again about the decline in monetary purchasing power, the narrative of Bitcoin as an "inflation hedge" might re-emerge. ⚡
So right now, the most critical thing is not to focus on daily ups and downs, but to watch one thing:
👉 Whether the U.S. will restart easing or continue to maintain high interest rates.
Because this could very well determine the overall direction of the entire crypto market in the future. 🌍📊