Lately, I've been obsessively watching interest rates... Basically, they are the remote control for risk appetite. When interest rates go up, people prefer to just earn interest passively, and everyone starts to dislike high volatility, unconsciously reducing their positions; when interest rates ease, only then do people dare to move their "cash positions" back, and on-chain activity will gradually pick up. My simple trick is: during macro tight periods, dream less and save more ammunition; when the sentiment indicators are still euphoric but on-chain activity hasn't caught up, just treat it as noise. By the way, the NFT royalty debates that are full of arguments also seem quite like macro transmission: creators want to secure income, traders just want cheaper liquidity... Anyway, everyone is fighting over the same "risk premium," just using different words.