Super Week is Coming: Central Bank Interest Rate Decisions, Major Earnings Reports, and Geopolitical Developments Set the Tone for Q2 Economic Trends

Gold Zhu, Jinsescaijing

Summary

The financial markets are迎来 a super week, with five major central banks集中议息, key economic data releases, and tech giants announcing earnings. These economic data will directly影响 global economy and asset pricing in the second quarter.

After the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting concludes this week, several large tech companies will逐步发布 their earnings reports. The market generally认为 that the so-called “super week” has arrived, and the data trends this week可能决定 the direction of global stock markets.

1. The Big Five Central Banks集中议息

1. Bank of Japan (April 28): No change in interest rates

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) held its third consecutive meeting to keep the target interest rate at 0.75%, in line with market expectations.

Japan’s real economic growth forecast was also lowered. For fiscal year 2026, it is 0.5%, down 0.5 percentage points from previous; for fiscal year 2027, it is 0.7%, down 0.1 percentage points. Considering rising oil prices and物流停滞 that will push up prices, while also exerting downward pressure on the economy, the decision was made to hold off on raising interest rates.

BOJ Governor Ueda Kazuo stated: “There is no immediate need to raise interest rates. If current supply shocks generate secondary ripple effects, then rate hikes will be necessary.”

Hirofumi Suzuki, chief FX strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, said that support for rate hikes from three votes was somewhat unexpected, and policy board member Shunko Nakagawa also shifted to support rate hikes. In Japan, the impact of Middle East shocks has already begun to show in consumer confidence, which is concerning in itself, and this impact is expected to further transmit to prices. Meanwhile, the yen still faces depreciation pressure in financial markets. Overall, the BOJ has no choice but to maintain its rate hike bias. If tensions in the Middle East ease, it is expected that the BOJ will further raise rates around June to July.

2. Federal Reserve FOMC (April 29): Expect no change in interest rates

The Fed will hold its meeting on April 28-29, with markets widely expecting a third consecutive pause, keeping rates between 3.50% and 3.75%. CME FedWatch data indicates that the market has fully priced in the expectation of no rate change this month.

According to CME “Federal Reserve Watch” data, the probability of the Fed holding rates steady in April is 100%. The chance of a 25 basis point cut by June is 4.5%, with a 95.5% chance of rates remaining unchanged.

Barclays analysts stated in a report that, amid high inflation, the Fed is expected to keep the federal funds target rate unchanged at this week’s meeting, but there is still potential for rate cuts later this year. The analysts said: “In an environment of high uncertainty, the Fed tends to stay on hold, supported by strong demand and still-high inflation, and policymakers have also signaled reduced confidence in further rate cuts in the near term.” They added that if inflation falls as expected, the Fed is likely to gain enough confidence to start easing policy around September. “We still expect rate cuts this year.” According to LSEG data, the currency market is currently pricing in a 10 basis point rate cut by the Fed in 2026.

3. Bank of Canada (April 29): Expect no change in interest rates

TD Securities expects the Bank of Canada to keep the overnight rate at 2.25% in April, likely maintaining this level for the rest of 2026. They believe the Bank will adopt a more balanced but cautious tone, emphasizing two-way growth risks from rising oil prices and USMCA renegotiations, while ignoring short-term inflation spikes.

TD strategist Andrew Kelvin noted: “We expect the Bank of Canada to hold rates at 2.25%, with the policy statement once again reflecting a cautious tone. Rising energy prices will lead the Bank to significantly raise inflation expectations in the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR), while revisions to core inflation and GDP are more moderate. Importantly, we expect the Bank to point out the ‘two-way’ growth risks from oil prices and maintain its commitment to ignoring short-term inflation impacts.”

“We still expect the Bank of Canada to remain on hold for the rest of 2026, especially given the recent unexpected decline in CPI. Recent rate increases, particularly the rise in the Bank of Canada’s forward rates, should be viewed as transmission of expectations for Fed rate cuts rather than a change in outlook. The December rate is currently priced at 2.61%, and returning to pre-war levels may be a slow process, not a rapid adjustment driven by a single dovish data point or communication.”

4. Bank of England (April 30): Expect no change in interest rates

Market surveys suggest that the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members are likely to vote 8-1 to keep the current 3.75% benchmark rate unchanged. Previously, in the March MPC meeting, the vote was unanimous 9-0 to keep rates steady. The general consensus is that, given the high geopolitical uncertainty from the Middle East, it is prudent for the Bank to hold rates steady again this week.

However, investors expect a rate hike later this year. The market has largely priced in a 25 basis point increase in July since April 24, and there is a small chance of a third hike before the end of the year, possibly in September. Despite this, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has warned that such hikes may be premature.

5. European Central Bank (April 30): Expect no change in interest rates

Rainer Guntermann, a rate strategist at Deutsche Bank, stated in a report ahead of the ECB policy meeting this week that the ECB will continue to closely monitor high oil prices. Since the US has paused negotiations with Iran and the Strait situation remains tense, short-term oil prices are unlikely to fall significantly. “This will keep the ECB on alert, but it’s still too early to hike rates this week.”

二、关键经济数据

1. US

April 28: Release of April Consumer Confidence Index by the Conference Board; April 30: Release of March Durable Goods Orders (initial), Fed’s April meeting decision, Q1 GDP annualized rate, and Conference Board Leading Index for March.

2. China

April 30: Release of China’s April official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI.

3. Europe

April 29: Release of March M3 money supply YoY; April 30: Release of Q1 GDP seasonally adjusted QoQ, April CPI YoY, March unemployment rate, and ECB interest rate decision.

4. Japan

April 28: Release of March unemployment rate; April 30: Release of March machine tool orders (final YoY), BOJ interest rate decision, March retail sales YoY, and March industrial output initial.

三、巨头财报

According to Huannan Yongchang Securities, five of the “Big Seven” US stocks—Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Apple—will release earnings this week. The current market narrative centers on whether massive AI capital expenditures have translated into corresponding revenue growth. Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta’s 2026 capital expenditure guidance shows significant growth compared to last year, and the market will closely watch their AI monetization progress. Despite the S&P 500 reaching new highs recently and 84% of companies reporting better-than-expected profits, market breadth has deteriorated, with most common stocks underperforming.

Domestically, leading companies like BYD, Foxconn, Cambrian, Sinopec, and China Merchants Bank will also report their Q1 results successively.

四、地缘政治

Iran and US delegations may hold a second round of talks in the coming days. Iran has conveyed to the US that it hopes Trump will tone down threatening rhetoric, and indicated that if the US adopts a more conciliatory stance, hardliners within Iran are more likely to support negotiations.

Iran will hold a nationwide large-scale parade at 3 p.m. on April 29 to showcase national strength.

Summary

In summary, this super week has clarified the short-term main theme of global financial markets: high interest rate environment will continue to dominate asset pricing.

Big tech earnings and geopolitical risks will be the core drivers of subsequent market volatility, and investors should focus on signals such as central bank policy directions, AI sector profitability, geopolitical risks, and oil price fluctuations.