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OPEC+ June production quotas will increase by approximately 188k barrels per day, and the market still expects a significant rise in oil prices.
BlockBeats News, May 2, a source revealed that although the UAE has withdrawn, seven countries in OPEC+ have, in principle, reached an agreement, planning to increase their oil production target by about 188,000 barrels per day in June. This increase is close to last month’s 206,000 barrels per day (after excluding the UAE’s share). This decision shows that OPEC+ is moving forward with decision-making in a “business as usual” manner. The seven OPEC+ member countries plan to hold an online meeting on Sunday.
Currently, due to the war between the US and Israel over Iran, most shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted, causing much greater interference to OPEC oil-producing countries than the production targets agreed by the organization. Therefore, the current increase in output is, to a large extent, symbolic. The UAE had previously unexpectedly announced that it would withdraw from OPEC and OPEC+ starting May 1.
According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability that “WTI crude oil’s single-day closing price” reaches $110 this month is 75%, the probability of reaching $120 is 45%, and the probability of reaching $130 is 22%, and the market still expects a sharp rise in oil prices.