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YouTuber Kripto Prediction of Bitcoin’s Lowest Point and Bear Market Cycle
Bitcoin’s bear market bottom may already have formed at the US$60,000 level, according to Carl Runefelt and David Wulschner, two highly watched European crypto YouTubers. Both believe that this cycle has never reached the euphoria that usually triggers a drop of up to 80%.
With Bitcoin’s price now trading around US$76,500, the predictions from these two YouTubers appear to be starting to come true. Runefelt from The Moon Show said that US$60,000 is the real-time bottom point, while Wulschner from Crypto Familie sees a strong accumulation zone with limited downside risk.
YouTuber Says Bitcoin Bottom Is at US$60,000
In an interview with BeInCrypto, Runefelt describes the moment when he made that prediction.
“When Bitcoin broke down to 60K, I thought at that time it was around 59 point something… I even made a tweet and a video on the same day that I was sure this was the bottom of the bear market,”
The Swedish creator stressed that this bear market doesn’t require a drastic drop because the previous peak was not accompanied by speculative euphoria, which typically occurs before a major sell-off.
“We never experienced euphoria. We never saw such a busy altcoin season. We also haven’t ever seen Bitcoin jump to such stratospheric levels of euphoria where everyone in the world is talking about it,”
He also pointed out that the Relative Strength Index shows oversold signals last seen during the mass sell-off of the COVID era. With Michael Saylor and other major institutions still continuing to accumulate, according to Runefelt, the potential for further downside is extremely small.
Wulschner Sees Limited Downside Potential
Wulschner, host of Crypto Familie, largely agrees but leaves open the possibility of a deeper test.
“I think it would be a mistake if we were expecting the price to fall below US$50,000,”
Wulschner’s support box is in the range of US$52,000–US$53,000, similar to the 23% retracement from the all-time high that occurred in the 2017 cycle. He believes the current zone is a very strong accumulation area.
He also maps the ‘max pain’ zone to the US$39,000 level at the Fibonacci 0.768 point, although he thinks this scenario is unlikely. Wulschner also highlighted the role of Michael Saylor and corporate treasuries as structural floors that prevent further downside.
Echoes of Benjamin Cowen’s Apathy Theory
The predictions from these two YouTubers align with analysis by Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, who emphasizes that this cycle’s peak wasn’t due to euphoria, but rather apathy. Since the peak wasn’t the result of mania, the 80% bear market decline pattern seen in previous years can’t simply be applied as is.
Cowen says this cycle is structurally different, because altcoin rotation generally requires a rush of euphoric retail capital—something that hasn’t happened. Since the outflow of large, mania-based funds hasn’t come, the US$60,000 level today could hold as a floor without needing extreme corrections like in 2018.
Risks That Could Invalidate This Prediction
Runefelt points to situations that could invalidate that prediction.
“If we see more wars or black swan events, or Trump posting a ridiculous tweet, then yes, the price could drop even further,”
Both creators emphasize the current zone as a strategic moment for long-term accumulation, not just trading. Wulschner closes with a firm instruction.
“You don’t make gains during a bull market. You need to set targets, build a foundation, and establish your main positions in your portfolio during a bear market,”