Retail investors are still fixated on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, but a group of “old money” on-chain has long shifted their attention to the Middle East.

The signal that just came out is unusual. “The King” admitted that behind-the-scenes negotiations between the US and Iran are accelerating, and the Iranian side is “very eager to reach an agreement.” Although he continues to apply pressure with his words, saying the conditions are “still not good enough,” and the Strait of Hormuz remains under blockade, it seems things are starting to loosen.

Once the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East truly comes to an end, crude oil prices are very likely to see a phase of a major breakdown.

Oil prices fall → inflation expectations cool off → the macro easing channel opens earlier.

At that time, where will the risk-averse funds flowing out of the crude oil market look for flexibility? Who is most sensitive to liquidity?

$BTC The daily chart has already formed an extremely converged triangle, with its amplitude steadily compressing. In this kind of position, retail investors are most likely to hand over their chips through repeated back-and-forth swings. But signals from several on-chain data platforms are consistent: “smart money” is quietly accumulating, betting on that moment when the macro expectation gap finally plays out.

If, in the coming days, there are substantive signs of a breakthrough between the US and Iran, it’s highly likely there will be a breakout above the upper resistance with expanding volume, leading to a one-sided squeeze. If negotiations get stuck again, in the short term the market will likely first plunge sharply again, burn off the leverage via that move, and then pull back.

The direction is likely to be decided this week. The eye of the storm has formed—now it’s just a matter of which side breaks first. #WCTC交易王PK