Just been looking at some interesting macro signals that could matter for timing the next crypto bull run. The ISM Manufacturing PMI hit 52.7 recently, which is the highest we've seen since 2022, and it's stayed above 50 for three straight months now. That's actually significant because it marks the end of nearly three years of contraction in U.S. manufacturing activity.

Here's what caught my attention: historically, when manufacturing activity starts expanding like this, it's usually preceded crypto market rallies. The previous bull runs in 2013, 2017, and 2021 all lined up with similar macro recoveries. Better manufacturing data tends to mean improved liquidity conditions, and that's when risk assets including crypto tend to perform better.

Raoul Pal made an interesting point about this. He's been saying crypto basically follows the ISM cycle, and he thinks this particular cycle might be different from the typical four-year halving structure. His take is we're looking at a five-year cycle this time, which would suggest the ISM should peak around 2026. That's worth keeping in mind when thinking about the next crypto bull run timeline.

Right now there are two main ways people are looking at this. The traditional view focuses on Bitcoin halving events as the main driver. After the April 2024 halving, we saw consolidation before pushing to new highs in 2025, following the same pattern from the 2020 halving cycle. Following that logic, the next major peak could stretch into 2026 or even beyond.

But the macro angle suggests things could move faster. If PMI expansion really does lead to lower interest rates and better liquidity, we could see faster participation in crypto markets than the standard timelines would suggest.

Institutional positioning is interesting here too. A Coinbase survey showed 74 percent of institutional investors expect crypto prices to rise within the next 12 months, and 73 percent are planning to increase their exposure to digital assets in 2026. That's pretty significant institutional conviction about the next crypto bull run.

Of course, liquidity conditions and external factors still matter. Geopolitical developments and regulatory decisions in the U.S. could shift things either way. But the macro backdrop is definitely worth watching if you're trying to figure out when the next crypto bull run actually kicks into high gear.