Lately, even seasoned pros feel an itch—seeing a big bullish candle and wanting to chase, their hands already reaching for the add position button… But now I force myself to stop and ask: Is this position being pushed by “information,” or is it just “emotion” bubbling it up? Put simply, if it’s only because everyone in the group is getting excited and the candlesticks look good, then chances are I’m just paying tuition to the market.

And on top of that, a bunch of on-chain data tools and tagging systems are being criticized for being laggy—some even being able to mislead—so I don’t really dare to treat them as “evidence.” At most, I use them as a reference: they tell me what might happen, but they can’t guarantee that what I’m seeing is the actual reason.

My mom asked me the other day, “Can’t you see who’s buying on-chain? If so, wouldn’t that be solid?” I could only give her a partial answer: seeing it doesn’t mean I can keep up… In any case, my approach is simple—cut the position size first, leave myself a way out, and just make sure I can stay alive.