#Gate广场五月交易分享 Bitcoin rose 11% in April, but veteran players are watching this risk signal.

A historical pattern worth cautioning
Analysts point out: 2014, 2018, 2022—these three years share a common point, with May being the yearly top. Will this pattern repeat in 2026?
Data from Glassnode further shows that BTC is facing resistance from the "True Market Mean" at its current position—this indicator has historically accurately predicted medium-term corrections.
It's not that prices always go up just because they look bullish; professional players focus on structure and position.

Why are some still calling for 225k?
In the 2026 CNBC annual Bitcoin forecast summary, institutions provided a wide-ranging price interval:
Pessimistic view: $75,000
Optimistic view: $225,000
Core logic supporting high target prices:
1. Continuous net inflows into ETFs—Since the approval of the US spot Bitcoin ETF in 2024, cumulative net inflows have exceeded hundreds of billions of dollars, with institutional holdings steadily increasing.
2. The third-year halving cycle effect—Historically, the third year after Bitcoin halving (2026 is the third year after the 2024 halving) often sees major market moves.
3. Global liquidity shift—Expectations of Fed rate cuts, easing by the European Central Bank, and improved capital conditions support risk assets.

Is the four-year cycle failing?
Traditional views hold that Bitcoin follows a "four-year halving cycle," but the market structure in 2026 is changing.
Analysis from BeInCrypto Chinese states: Bitcoin's four-year cycle is evolving into a "five-year, liquidity-driven phase"—institutional funds and macro liquidity are becoming more central to pricing, and the accuracy of purely historical cycle extrapolation is decreasing. This means:
The timing patterns of past "tops" and "bottoms" are losing their reference value.
The weight of macro liquidity (Fed policies, US dollar index, global M2) is rising.
Retail "HODL" strategies may need to be adjusted in conjunction with macro rhythms.

Bitcoin rose 11% in April, institutions are still buying, but with the May historical top pattern + True Market Mean resistance, caution is needed when chasing positions at this level. In the long term, the halving cycle + liquidity-driven logic remains, but the "mindless accumulation" phase may be over.