Just been reading through some interesting macro data and it got me thinking about where we actually stand in this cycle right now.

So the ISM Manufacturing PMI hit 52.7 and stayed above 50 for three consecutive months - that's expansion territory after nearly three years of contraction. Longest streak like that in over a century according to the records. What's catching people's attention is how this aligns with past crypto rallies. The previous bull runs in 2013, 2017, and 2021 all coincided with similar manufacturing recoveries and improving liquidity conditions.

Raoul Pal made an interesting point about this - he's basically saying crypto follows the business cycle. Bitcoin is tracking the ISM pretty closely. But here's where it gets different from the traditional halving-based four-year cycle we're used to. This one looks like a five-year structure, which would suggest the ISM should peak around 2026.

There are two main ways people are thinking about when the next crypto bull run accelerates from here. First is the traditional halving model - after April 2024's halving, we saw consolidation and then new highs in 2025, following the same pattern from 2020. That framework suggests the major peak could stretch into 2026 or beyond. Then there's the macro-driven perspective - with PMI back above 50, we're seeing improving economic conditions and historically that means more liquidity flowing into risk assets like crypto.

What's interesting is the institutional positioning. A Coinbase survey showed 74 percent of institutional investors expect crypto prices to rise within the next 12 months, and 73 percent are planning to increase their exposure to digital assets in 2026. That's pretty significant conviction from the institutional side.

Liquidity conditions are shifting and that could accelerate things, especially if we see interest rate cuts. But there's still the geopolitical noise and regulatory developments to watch. Those external factors haven't gone away. Either way, the question of when is the next crypto bull run seems to be less about if and more about whether we're riding the macro wave or sticking to the halving cycle - probably both are playing a role here.