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Just came across something interesting about market cycles that actually makes sense if you look at the long-term patterns. There's this old theory from Samuel Benner dating back to 1875 where he mapped out economic booms, recessions, and panics. The wild part is how consistent the cycle seems to be, roughly every 18-20 years.
So here's how it breaks down. You've got panic years where financial crises hit hard - like 1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, 2019, and supposedly coming around 2035 and 2053. During these periods the market just gets messy, so the smart move is to sit tight and not panic sell. Then there are boom years where prices surge and everything recovers. That's your window to take profits and exit positions. We saw these in 1928, 1960, 1989, 2000, 2007, 2016, 2020, and according to this cycle, 2026 should be one of them - which is interesting timing right now.
The real money-making period though? That's when you understand when to buy versus when to sell. The recession years - like 1924, 1942, 1958, 1978, 1985, 2005, 2012, and 2023 - those are when assets get cheap. Stocks, land, commodities all hit low prices. If you can stomach holding through the downturn, you wait for the boom to hit and then you exit at the top. That's the basic rhythm.
Now here's the thing - this isn't gospel. Markets get influenced by wars, tech breakthroughs, political changes, all sorts of unpredictable stuff. But as a framework for understanding long-term cycles? It's pretty compelling. The period when to make money really comes down to knowing which phase you're in and acting accordingly. Buy the dips, sell the rips, avoid the panics. Simple concept, hard execution.