Bitcoin (BTC): $77,000 Cobra, the Bull and Bear Battle is Heating Up

According to Gate.io market monitoring, Bitcoin is currently trading around $77,000. The 24-hour price change is about 1.92%. Throughout the day, it reached a high of $77,400 before pulling back slightly. Previously, Bitcoin faced clear selling pressure at the $79,000-$80,000 resistance zone, while it briefly dropped back to around $75,500. It is now in a rebound and recovery phase.
Macro: Double pressure from geopolitical risks and sentiment freezing. US Vice President Vance confirmed that US-Iran negotiations failed to reach an agreement, and differences between the two sides remain clear. After the news was released, Bitcoin briefly fell below $72,000. In his latest statement, Powell said that "energy and geopolitical shocks have not peaked," which significantly lowered market expectations for a rate cut this year. On Polymarket, the probability of "no rate cut until 2026" rose to 59%. Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropped to 26, placing the market in a "panic" state.
ETF flows show signs of recovery. On April 30, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $14.76 million in net inflows, ending three consecutive days of previous outflows. BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC contributed most of these inflows. Marginal improvement in institutional demand is one of the few positive signals in the market right now.
Technical analysis: Competition at key levels is intensifying. Analysts indicate that around $77,500, there is accumulated selling pressure of about $8.5 billion, forming short-term downward pressure. On the support side, on-chain data from Glassnode shows that the $74,700-$75,000 range is the concentrated cost basis area for short-term holders; if the price breaks below this, the next target would be around $68,000. In the derivatives market, if Bitcoin drops another $5,000 from the current level, it could trigger liquidations of about $6.8 billion in leveraged long positions.
Entry order strategies
Conservative long strategy: Gradually build positions within the $74,500-$75,000 range. Place a stop-loss below $73,500. The first target is $77,500, and the second target is $80,000.
Aggressive long strategy: If trading volume can effectively hold above $78,000, you can slightly chase long positions. Place a stop-loss at $76,500. The target is $80,000-$82,000.
Short-term short strategy: When the price encounters resistance and pulls back in the $77,500-$78,000 area, try a light short. Place a stop-loss above $79,000. The target is $75,000-$75,500.
Catalysts to watch: The White House signals that in the coming weeks, they may announce the establishment of a strategic US Bitcoin reserve. The initial funding will come from 200,000 BTC seized by the government. If this narrative materializes, it is expected to boost long-term confidence.
Main support: $75,000 → $74,500 → $72,000
Main resistance: $78,000 → $80,000 → $82,000
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