#美联储利率不变但内部分歧加剧 #Gate广场五月交易分享 The Federal Reserve Holds Steady: Internal Divisions Intensify, Rate Path Expectations Reassessed

The Federal Reserve maintains interest rates, but a rare internal split is quietly changing market perceptions of future policy paths.
According to reports, during the Federal Reserve policy meeting on April 28-29 (U.S. local time), four votes opposed the decision. Among them, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan all opposed retaining the phrase “accommodative bias” in the statement, signaling a clear hawkish stance, catching the market off guard.
As a result, U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board: the two-year yield increased by about 11 basis points in a single day to 3.95%, the largest rise on an FOMC decision day since 2022; the 30-year yield broke through the 5% mark for the first time since 2025.
Meanwhile, the interest rate swap market has priced in about a 50% chance of a rate hike in 2027. This bond market adjustment is not isolated. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz blockade pushing up oil prices, and rising inflation expectations, combined with increasing hawkish dissent within the Fed, are collectively driving market re-pricing—“maintaining high interest rates for a longer period,” and even “not ruling out another rate hike,” are gradually becoming mainstream expectations.

Short-term yields lead the decline, long-term yields break key levels, and sentiment is heating up. The current sell-off is primarily focused on the short end. The rapid rise in the two-year yield, which is most sensitive to policy, reflects a significant revision of market expectations for the rate path. At the same time, the 30-year yield has broken through the 5% psychological threshold. Although this level has been briefly touched in past cycles, it has never sustained, and now that it has broken through again, concerns about a rising long-term rate center are emerging.
Shift in Pricing Logic: From Rate Cut Expectations to Rate Hike Possibilities
The change in the derivatives market’s pricing signals is more meaningful: current pricing indicates that the Fed is likely to hold steady for the rest of the year, with a significant first-time inclusion of the possibility of a rate hike in 2027. This sharply contrasts with the previous consensus of “multiple rate cuts within the year.”
Market participants generally believe that the split votes send a clear signal—the internal Fed debate on balancing inflation and growth risks is becoming more divided, and the policy reaction function is becoming more uncertain.
Oil Prices and Geopolitics: The Core Variables Behind Bond Market Pressure
The root cause of the ongoing pressure on the bond market lies in rising inflation expectations driven by oil prices. The Strait of Hormuz, as a critical global energy corridor, remains blocked, significantly elevating energy prices and prompting a reassessment of the previously fully priced-in rate cut path. Against this backdrop, market tolerance for policy shifts has decreased, and the space for the Fed to maintain or even tighten its stance has reopened.
Deepening Divisions: The “Four Votes Against” with Divergent Stances
Notably, the four opposing votes point to two very different policy stances: Governor Stephen Miran supports a 25 basis point rate cut, continuing his usual dovish stance; while Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan, although supporting holding rates steady, oppose any “preset dovish guidance.”
This “opposition with opposing directions” highlights a deep internal split within the FOMC regarding the policy path.
The core logic of the three regional Fed presidents is that, in the context of energy shocks and rising inflation uncertainty, policy should not preemptively lock in a dovish direction but should retain greater flexibility.