Yesterday, I clicked on ZEC in the replay and mentioned that it was showing some signs of movement. Unexpectedly, it gave a strong move today—rising over 7x in 24 hours, peaking near 393, with buying pressure following closely.

On the chart, the 1-hour MACD has already crossed above the zero line, and the price is steadily pushing up along the 7-day moving average. The short-term structure indeed leans toward a bullish trend. However, near the previous high area, there might be some chips loosening, so there's no need to rush; those who haven't entered yet can wait for a pullback confirmation for more stability.

This round of rally is actually supported by several solid reasons.

First is the Grayscale trust. The market is now watching its potential to convert into a spot ETF. In April, the trust’s average daily trading volume doubled, and敏ent funds have already started positioning early. If this materializes, the buyer structure of ZEC will change completely, no longer just retail investors and early miners competing internally.

Second is even more hardcore—the holdings in privacy pools have reached a new historical high. Especially the Orchard pool, where over 30% of the circulating supply is locked in privacy mode. What does this mean? The actual circulating coins in the open market are decreasing, while the adoption rate of privacy features is still climbing. The supply-demand relationship might not be obvious in the short term, but in the long run, it’s the underlying logic.

Additionally, the SEC’s investigation into the Zcash Foundation seems to be nearing a conclusion. If regulatory clarity is achieved, it would lift a long-standing burden for privacy coins like ZEC.

Honestly, privacy-focused projects have always been a special presence in the entire crypto market. They don’t chase DeFi trends or compete in public chain wars; they quietly walk their own path. But whenever privacy demand surges, they are the immediate beneficiaries.

Of course, with the current market, short-term battles are inevitable. The movements of large addresses are still unclear, and whether profit-taking will happen depends on how the next few 4-hour candles develop. But that doesn’t prevent us from reevaluating it from a mid- to long-term perspective— as more ZEC is locked in privacy pools and Grayscale ETF expectations heat up, the bottom of this asset might be quietly rising.

I still maintain yesterday’s judgment: before the trend turns bad, don’t rush to be bearish. We’re still early.