I tried once to watch and follow on-chain whale addresses and copy their trades, but I found myself chasing shadows... Later, when I went back and reviewed it, I realized that what they looked like they were doing—“adding to a position”—was actually the hedge leg, while the other side had already put the opposite position on the exchange/in another chain. I only saw half of it and rushed in, and my mindset completely collapsed. Now, when I see large transfers, I first ask myself: Is this building a position, or just moving funds—changing collateral/rehypothecation/hedging? If I can’t figure it out, I don’t act; I’d rather miss out. Recently, a whole bunch of people have been using ETF capital flows and U.S. stock risk appetite to explain crypto price moves—sure, in a way, it all sounds self-consistent—but it has nothing to do with me. What I care about is not getting led off course by those four words, “whale same-model,” prioritizing survival first.