Over the past couple of days, I’ve again seen a bunch of “smart money address profile” posts. To be honest, I can read them too, but I really don’t dare to trust them all. Labels are too easy to be “shells”: one person with several wallets transfers back and forth, and clustering starts to get imagined as a big whale. There’s also exchange aggregation, and market maker routing—on-chain it looks like the same person is playing chess, but in reality it might just be a pipeline.

My habit is to first check whether the fund flow has a “closed loop”—why it comes in, where it goes out, and whether there are long-term repeated paths—then pair it with timing and the interaction counterparties. Only when the logic matches do I think it has any real reference value.

Recently, during that wave of extreme fee rates, the group was arguing whether to reverse or to continue squeezing out the bubble; but instead, I’m even more curious whether these profiles will collectively get distorted in extreme market conditions… For now, that’s it—talk again next time.