Tonight at 2:00 AM Beijing time, the global financial markets will focus on this critical moment, closely watching the Federal Reserve's upcoming important decision!

As the April 2026 Federal Reserve FOMC meeting countdown begins, tonight's interest rate decision will not only reveal the Fed's latest policy stance on the current economic situation; it is also the last meeting and press conference chaired by current Fed Chair Powell.

Therefore, this will be a decision-making event of global attention!

Currently, the market widely expects that the Federal Reserve will keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% at the third rate decision meeting in April 2026, to cope with the increasingly complex macroeconomic environment.

According to data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FebWatch tool, the probability that the Fed will not cut rates this time is already 100%.

But the real focus of this rate meeting is whether the FOMC will modify its wording in the upcoming statement, especially whether it will remove hints about “possible rate cuts next”?

Although the U.S. labor market and overall economic indicators still show strong resilience, energy supply shocks caused by the U.S.-Iran conflict continue to push up oil prices, intensifying inflationary pressures on the Fed.

Meanwhile, although the U.S.-Iran conflict is currently in a ceasefire, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. Whether this situation will have a short-term or long-term impact on inflation will directly determine whether the Fed needs to keep high interest rates longer than market expectations.

For this reason, dovish Fed officials including Waller and Daly are gradually tightening their stance, hinting that future monetary policy may shift to hawkish. Especially, whether the Fed might consider raising interest rates this year, despite the market widely expecting rates to remain unchanged or possibly cut once more this year.
Therefore, tonight’s Fed meeting will send an important signal about the future direction of U.S. monetary policy.

Powell’s Final Act

The current Fed Chair Powell’s term will officially end on May 15, 2026. Currently, the highest nomination buzz is for Kevin Woeh.

At this final press conference, whether Powell will choose a smooth transition or demonstrate hawkish posture to defend his anti-inflation mission during his tenure will be the focus of global financial markets.

Although Powell’s chairmanship will end, he can continue to serve as a Fed governor until 2028. Therefore, whether Powell will follow his predecessor in leaving completely or choose to stay and continue exerting influence will also be a key topic in tonight’s Fed press conference questions.

Impact on the Bitcoin Market

In the past 9 Fed rate decision meetings, Bitcoin’s price has fallen within 48 hours in 8 instances.

Currently, after hitting a low of $65,000 in early April, Bitcoin entered a recovery phase in mid to late April, with prices rebounding to fluctuate between $78,000 and $79,500. However, it has attempted twice to break through the $80,000 mark but failed both times.
If Powell fails to deliver an unexpectedly dovish signal tonight, the recent rebound could trigger profit-taking selling. At that time, Bitcoin’s price may face a downward risk.

For example, on April 27 and April 28, large-scale net outflows of funds from U.S. Wall Street Bitcoin spot ETFs occurred, totaling $263 million and $89.7 million respectively, ending their nine consecutive days of net fund inflows. This may indicate that Wall Street institutional funds are proactively reducing their positions.