#Gate广场五月交易分享

Looking back at the past week’s trend, BTC completed a typical "bottom exploration and rally - surge and pullback - stabilize and recover" pattern: a quick rebound from the low of $74,000, reaching a high of $79,500 at one point, hitting a ten-week high, then encountering strong selling pressure that pulled back to the key support at $76,000, ultimately relying on the 100-day EMA support to recover most of the decline. On May 1st, it surged by 2.52% in a single day, with short-term buying power returning strongly, completely reversing the weak pattern before the holiday.
But all traders must be alert to a deadly hidden risk: the current 24-hour cross-exchange trading volume has fallen below $8 billion, hitting a new low since October 2023. In a market with extremely reduced volume, it may seem calm on the surface, but liquidity is extremely thin, and even small capital movements can trigger sharp rises or falls, greatly amplifying short-term volatility risks.
1. Core battle between bulls and bears: two cost lines locking in the range
The current tug-of-war in BTC is essentially a battle over market chip costs, with two core cost lines directly defining short-term price boundaries: Short-term selling pressure peak: $78,900 (cost line for STH holders). Currently, the price is slightly below this level, and retail investors and short-term funds that entered in recent months are generally at a floating loss. Once the price rebounds to $78,900, a large volume of stop-loss selling pressure will flood out, making it the most difficult resistance to break in the short term.
Balance line between bulls and bears: $78,000 (market’s true average price TMM). This is the real cost center of all market positions. All recent oscillations, tug-of-war, and price swings have been centered around this level. Holding above it indicates a bias toward the bulls, while falling below it signals a return to weakness.
Double-layer support line + massive options settlement determine the short-term direction
Support levels below the market are layered to provide a safety net, while derivatives settlement pressure hides potential short-term turning points:
Strong short-term support: $75,000–$76,000. This is the dynamic support at the 100-day moving average, also a recent dense zone of chip accumulation, serving as the defensive bottom line for short-term holdings and the core basis for this rebound.
Ultimate defense zone: $65,000–$70,000. If short-term support fails, this zone is recognized by institutional funds as a strong absorption fortress and a key line of defense for the medium- to long-term bull market structure, with a very high tolerance for errors.
More critically, on May 2nd, a major options expiration occurs: 23,000 BTC options contracts on Deribit are expiring, with a notional value of up to $1.74 billion. The put-call ratio for this expiration is 1.10, indicating a market leaning toward bearish sentiment, with the maximum pain point at $76,000. The price at expiration is highly likely to gravitate toward this level, and short-term volatility and shakeouts are inevitable.
The core truth behind macro easing and market tightening, and the market divergence
The main driver of this BTC rebound comes from macro liquidity recovery: the Federal Reserve maintaining steady interest rates, a weakening dollar index, easing inflation concerns, and continued strength in US tech stocks, boosting market risk appetite. Coupled with a net inflow of $1.97 billion into ETFs in April, with nine consecutive days of capital accumulation, providing a solid bottom support for the rally. However, selling pressure has been brewing beneath the surface, and upward momentum remains limited: since April 15, over 150k BTC have been transferred to exchanges, with massive sell orders accumulating in the $76,700–$79,300 range; 475k BTC holdings are concentrated at a cost basis of $77,800–$80,880, with investors in this range generally on the brink of breakeven, and any rebound could trigger profit-taking selling pressure.
Hidden market concerns: April’s short-term capital inflows were impressive, but since the beginning of the year, ETF net outflows have totaled $4.5 billion.