#Gate广场五月交易分享

Currently, the price is slightly below this level, and retail investors and short-term funds that entered in recent months are generally in a floating loss. Once the price rebounds to touch $78,900, a large volume of short covering and selling pressure will flood out, making it the most difficult short-term resistance level to break through.
Long and short balance line: $78,000 (market true average price TMM). This is the true cost center of all market positions; all recent oscillations, tug-of-wars, and price fluctuations have been centered around this level. Standing firm above it indicates a bullish bias, while breaking below it signals a return to weakness.
Dual-layer support defense + massive options settlement determine the short-term direction
Support levels below the market are layered to back the trend, while derivatives settlement pressure secretly hides short-term reversal traps:
Short-term strong support: $75,000–$76,000. This is the dynamic support of the 100-day moving average and also the recent dense chip accumulation zone, serving as the defensive bottom line for short-term holdings and the core basis for this rebound.
Ultimate defense zone: $65,000–$70,000. If short-term support is broken, this zone is recognized by institutional funds as a strong absorption fortress and a key defense line for the medium- to long-term bull market structure, with a very high tolerance for errors.
More critically, on May 2nd, a major options settlement will occur: 23,000 BTC options contracts on Deribit will expire, with a nominal value of up to $1.74 billion. The put-call ratio for this settlement is 1.10, indicating market bearish sentiment, and the maximum pain point is locked at $76,000. The price at settlement is highly likely to approach this level, and short-term volatility and shakeouts are inevitable.
Macro easing, tight market, the core truth of market divergence
The core driver of this BTC rebound comes from macro liquidity recovery: the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged, the US dollar index weakening, inflation concerns easing, and US tech stocks continuing to strengthen, boosting market risk appetite. Coupled with a net inflow of $1.97 billion into ETFs in April, with nine consecutive days of capital accumulation, providing a solid bottom support for the trend. However, selling pressure in the market has been brewing beneath the surface, and upward momentum remains limited: since April 15, over 150k BTC have been transferred from holders to exchanges, with massive sell orders accumulating in the $76,700–$79,300 range; the cost basis of 475k BTC holdings is concentrated between $77,800 and $80,880, with investors in this range generally on the brink of break-even, and any slight rebound could trigger profit-taking selling pressure.
Hidden market concerns: Although short-term capital inflows in April were impressive, ETF net outflows since the beginning of the year have totaled $4.5 billion, with recent outflows of another $390 million, indicating that the overall capital pattern has not been fully reversed.
Future turning point forecast: strategic positive factors are brewing, and the window for a trend reversal is opening. Amid short-term volatility, top-tier long-term positive factors are quietly brewing, which could completely change the supply and demand landscape of BTC: the US has classified Bitcoin as a national security asset, highlighting its geopolitical strategic allocation attribute. The White House has issued clear signals, and major announcements related to the US strategic Bitcoin reserves may be imminent. Currently, the US Treasury holds 328k BTC in permanent lock-up; if a subsequent bill for an additional 1 million BTC is enacted, it will create long-term scarcity benefits, supporting the continuation of the bull market. Meanwhile, spot supply continues to dry up, with OTC desks reducing 20,700 BTC in 30 days, making circulating spot increasingly scarce. The trend of long-term institutional accumulation is clear, and the market is shifting from retail speculation to institutional value.