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Tonight I started reflecting on the history of gold crashes, and honestly, it's fascinating to see how the market always reacts to the same factors, just at different times.
Let's think about 2008—that was a truly brutal gold crash. From March to October, prices plummeted by 29.5%. You had the subprime mortgage crisis exploding, European debt spiraling out of control, and then the Fed beginning to cut interest rates. All together, it created a perfect storm. Funds pulled out of the precious metals market, and gold fell along with silver.
But it wasn't even the worst. The first historic crash was even more devastating: September 1980 to June 1982. In less than two years, gold's price lost 58.2%. Incredible, right? The United States and other countries were fighting inflation, reducing demand for gold as a safe haven. When the oil crisis started to calm down, people no longer needed to protect their savings, and the price collapsed accordingly.
Then there was the crash from 2012 to 2015, when the price dropped by 39%. Do you remember the 80-ton gold fraud case? April 2013 was the tipping point—the price plunged, and money immediately flowed into the stock and real estate markets. No one wanted gold anymore; investment demand had disappeared.
In the years 80-85, we saw another crash of 41.35%. The global economy was entering a period of moderation, developed countries were starting to prosper, and risk events decreased. Less fear, less need for precious metals.
And then 2016, when from July to December, the price fell by 16.6%. Investors were convinced that the US would raise rates, and with global economic growth accelerating, they started selling all their gold holdings.
Looking at these historical cycles, I can't help but wonder: are we at a crossroads again? Every time the market changes direction, someone asks if the next gold crash is already around the corner. History teaches us it always happens, but the causes change. Now the context is different—inflation, interest rates, geopolitics—but the pattern remains.