Bitcoin rebounds but options market remains cautious; only a 25% chance of breaking through $84k

Mars Finance News: Bitcoin has retaken the $78,000 level, with overall market risk appetite improving, and the S&P 500 index reaching a new all-time high on Friday. Although Bitcoin has risen 15% over the past 30 days, options market pricing indicates only a 25% probability of Bitcoin rising above $84,000 before the end of May. The derivatives market remains skeptical of further gains, but institutional spot demand remains robust. The price of a Bitcoin call option expiring on May 29 with a strike price of $84,000 is 0.0136 BTC, approximately $1,063. With 27 days until expiration, this data implies a 25% chance of Bitcoin rising 8% in May. Bitcoin put options have been trading at a premium over the past month, indicating increased market demand for downside protection. Demand for leveraged long positions is insufficient, partly explained by Bitcoin’s 12% decline so far in 2026. Despite derivatives traders’ lack of confidence that Bitcoin will reach $84,000, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs are signaling differently, with a net inflow of $1.3 billion in March and another $2 billion in April, pushing total net assets above $100 billion. This metric is often used as a proxy for institutional investor demand. Additionally, over the past 30 days, several listed companies have significantly increased their Bitcoin holdings, including Strategy with 56,235 BTC and Metaplanet with 5,075 BTC. These companies’ accumulated holdings have exceeded the amount of Bitcoin mined over the next five months, greatly reducing potential selling pressure. The insufficient demand for Bitcoin call options does not mean the probability of Bitcoin reaching $84,000 or higher before the end of May is negated. As long as institutional buying remains steady, the bullish momentum should continue.