AI has taken away your memory stick

Null

Over the past six months, the most profitable “asset” is not gold, not silver, not Bitcoin—it’s that unassuming memory stick inside your computer.

The current spot price of DDR4 16GB has surged by 200%-340% since the beginning of the year, with giants like Samsung and Micron temporarily suspending quotes. A single 256GB DDR5 server memory module has broken through 40k RMB—equivalent to the price of a flagship smartphone.

Even worse news: the bill hasn’t reached your hands yet. But on the early morning of April 30th, Cook already previewed during Apple’s earnings call—transmission will begin after June.

01 340% in half a year—why this data line can outperform gold

Let’s look at a set of data.

According to TrendForce’s data, from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026, global DRAM contract prices increased by over 40% for two consecutive quarters. Counterpoint’s latest report shows: in Q1 2026, memory prices rose by 80%-90% quarter-over-quarter, setting new records across DRAM, NAND, and HBM categories.

More specific numbers:

The contract price for 64GB RDIMM server memory jumped from $450 in Q4 2025 to over $900 in Q1 2026, and is expected to surpass $1,000 in Q2 2026—more than doubling in half a year.

Spot prices for DDR4 16GB have surged by 200% since the start of the year. In some extreme periods, DDR4 prices even surpassed DDR5—creating an inverted phenomenon where “older products are more expensive than new ones.”

Consumer-grade SSD contract prices are expected to increase by at least 40% in Q1, with some imaging storage card models rising by 123%.

Half a year, 340%—ten times the gold price increase during the same period.

A DIY enthusiast found: the memory sticks stocked in 2024 could be resold in early 2026 for more than their investment in financial products.

▸ DDR4 16GB spot price: up 200%-340% in half a year (Source: TrendForce)

▸ 64GB RDIMM server memory: $450→$900+ in two quarters (Source: Counterpoint)

▸ DRAM Q1 contract price increase: 60% (Source: Qunzhizhi Consulting)

▸ NAND Flash Q1 quarter-over-quarter increase: 70%-90% (Source: Counterpoint)

▸ 256GB DDR5 server memory single unit: over 40k RMB (Source: GeekNet)

02 AI grabbing memory—this is the real driver behind the price surge

Pull back the lens.

This isn’t just a typical cyclical fluctuation in the storage industry. Previous memory price hikes were driven by consumer electronics demand—smartphone and PC upgrade waves boosting DRAM needs. This time, it’s entirely different:

AI is grabbing memory sticks.

▍ Supply side: HBM consumes 80% of capacity

Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are doing one thing: channel 80% of their capital expenditure into HBM and DDR5 (high-margin AI storage products).

As a result: traditional DDR4 (common consumer specs) capacity is severely squeezed. Samsung has reduced DDR4 capacity to below 20% of 2025 levels. Micron’s data center revenue now accounts for 40%.

More critically: many DDR4 production lines have been dismantled. Adata chairman Chen Libai said: “Producing old products with new equipment is simply unprofitable.”

This means DDR4 shortages are not just short-term supply chain issues but a structural shortage in the medium to long term.

▍ Demand side: AI servers consume 66% of total capacity

AI servers demand eight times more memory than ordinary servers.

By 2026, AI servers will account for 66% of global DRAM capacity—meaning the remaining 34% must serve smartphones, PCs, home appliances, cars, and all other consumer markets. Cloud service providers (Amazon, Google, Microsoft, ByteDance, Alibaba) lock in supply through long-term agreements (LTAs), leaving ordinary consumer manufacturers to compete for the remaining share.

Simply put: AI servers enjoy priority in capacity allocation. This is a hardware resource reallocation triggered by a technological revolution, with ordinary consumers being passive recipients.

03 What does this mean for you?

If you’re planning to buy a phone or laptop in the second half of the year—pay attention to price movement trends.

Cost pressures are already being transmitted. Lenovo, Dell, and HP have notified customers of new price increases, with hikes up to 20%. Some laptops have increased by 5,000 RMB, mid-range phones have quietly risen by 100-300 RMB. Liu Jie, President of OnePlus China, said: “Those wanting to upgrade should act quickly.”

Liu Jie’s “act quickly” refers to a window before June or July 2026. Cook already forecasted during the Q2 earnings call: “After June, storage costs will increasingly impact Apple’s business.” Translation: the iPhone 18 series will likely see price hikes, with the timing around the September 2026 new product launch.

Storage accounts for 10%-20% of the BOM (bill of materials) costs for computers and phones. When storage chips surge 340% in half a year, the impact on end hardware prices is at least 5%-15%—an 8,000 RMB laptop could see a 400-1,200 RMB increase.

▍ If you’re interested in the storage industry chain—this is a structural opportunity

The following data is for industry research reference only and does not constitute specific investment advice.

There are 47 listed storage industry chain concept stocks in A-shares, which have generally performed actively since 2026. ShenKangjia A hit the daily limit, Fudan Microelectronics and Huazheng New Materials rose over 9%, and Jiangfeng Electronics’ stock price hit a record high.

More importantly: the domestic storage substitution window has opened. As the three major manufacturers collectively abandon the consumer-grade DDR4 market, domestic storage companies have the opportunity to capture 10%-15% of the global consumer market share—an industry opportunity unseen in the past five years. Institutions predict: in the next 2-3 years, the domestic substitution rate for consumer storage chips could rise from 15% to over 30%.

▍ If you’re an entrepreneur—this is a supply chain crisis drill

Any product relying heavily on memory (cloud services, SaaS, video, AI applications)—your cost structure is being rewritten. Meta has issued $25 billion in bonds, partly to expand AI computing storage reserves. What should small and medium enterprises do? This is the most worth asking question in the second half of 2026.

This isn’t just a cycle; it’s a structural reorganization of the industry chain.

Unlike previous “price surge” cycles, there is no rebound window this time.

DDR4 lines have been dismantled, and new factories will take at least 2-3 years to complete (the earliest in 2028). HBM capacity still cannot meet AI server demands. SK Hynix has predicted this price surge cycle will last until 2028. This means—hardware you buy in the second half of the year will likely see price increases, and probably won’t fall back next year. This is the new normal.

AI has taken your memory sticks, and the bill will arrive in three months—this is the silent cost for Chinese consumers in 2026.

Three years ago, no one expected that a technology called generative AI would cause consumers worldwide to spend billions more.

The first bill of the AI revolution has already started arriving at millions of households—through the prices of your next computer, next phone, and next cloud service subscription.

This article is for information sharing and industry analysis only, not investment advice, investment analysis, or trading invitations. Markets are risky; invest cautiously. Any investment decisions based on this content are at your own risk, and the author and platform bear no legal responsibility.

Sources of information

1. TrendForce: Storage Market Report for Q1-Q2 2026

2. Counterpoint Research: “Memory Price Tracking Report for February” (February 9, 2026)

3. Qunzhizhi Consulting: Consumer Electronics Storage Q1 Price Analysis (April 2026)

4. Securities Times: “Storage Chip Prices Surge Over 300%—Rare Price Spike” (December 2025)

5. Information Technology Observation Network: “340% Surge in Half a Year! Who’s Controlling Your Memory Prices?” (February 5, 2026)

6. Apple Q2 Earnings Call Minutes (April 30, 2026)

7. Zhihu Research Institute: “Will Storage Prices Rise and Shortages Persist in 2026?” (2026)