Recently checked out a blockchain game pool again, and when the hype rises, everyone rushes like a market day. As soon as the gate opens, it's all "more coins tomorrow," basically inflation paying your wages. A few days ago, we were still discussing the floor price structure, and in less than a week, the floor started to collapse: it's not that no one is playing, but that production has eaten up the consensus. Old players sell, new players buy in, and if they can't keep up, it just keeps sliding down. The pool still looks active, but it's actually hollow inside.

This feels a bit like the recent criticism of the staking/shared security model with "compound yields": if one layer of yield isn't enough, add another layer. It looks great on paper, but when it comes to real payout, everything is squeezed into the same exit... Anyway, when I look at blockchain games now, I don't focus on APR first. I look at "where does the new money come from, how do old players' funds move," whether there's a real consumption scenario behind the production. If not, it's just candy.

There's too much information, which makes me pretty anxious. My filtering method is pretty crude: I only focus on three things—retention of new players (not download numbers), the token/item recycling mechanism, and whether the community chat is still discussing gameplay rather than just asking "when will I break even." The rest is noise for now. That's how I see it.