Bitcoin rebounds but options market remains cautious: 25% chance of surpassing $84k in May

BlockBeats News, May 2nd, Bitcoin reclaims above $78,000, with overall market risk appetite improving, and the S&P 500 reaching a new all-time high on Friday. Despite Bitcoin rising 15% over the past 30 days, options market pricing indicates only a 25% probability of Bitcoin surpassing $84,000 by the end of May. The derivatives market remains skeptical of further gains, but institutional spot demand remains robust.

The price of Bitcoin call options with a strike price of $84,000 expiring on May 29th is 0.0136 BTC, approximately $1,063. With 27 days until expiration, this data implies a 25% chance of Bitcoin rising 8% in May. Bitcoin put options have been trading at a premium over the past month, indicating increased market demand for downside protection. The lack of demand for leveraged long positions may partly be explained by Bitcoin having fallen 12% so far in 2026.

Despite derivatives traders’ lack of confidence that Bitcoin will reach $84,000, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs send a different signal, with a net inflow of $1.3 billion in March and another $2 billion in April, pushing total net assets above $100 billion. This indicator is often used as a proxy for institutional investor demand. Additionally, over the past 30 days, several listed companies have significantly increased their Bitcoin holdings, including Strategy with 56,235 BTC and Metaplanet with 5,075 BTC. These companies’ accumulated holdings have exceeded the Bitcoin mining output for the next five months, greatly reducing potential selling pressure. The lack of demand for Bitcoin bullish derivatives does not mean the probability of Bitcoin reaching $84,000 or higher before the end of May is negated. As long as institutional buying remains steady, the bullish momentum should continue.