Lately, I've been paying more attention to macro news than to candlestick charts... As soon as expectations of interest rate cuts emerge, the group chat starts talking about "risk appetite coming back," but it feels more like emotions are leading, with positions added afterward. When interest rates are high, I don't really want to leverage more; anyway, money sitting idle also has "time value," and I'm more willing to slowly wait with some less popular privacy and decentralized storage options, not chasing the hype.

Recently, someone also said that the US dollar index rises and falls together with risk assets, which sounds pretty awkward, but sometimes the market is just so contradictory: people first find a narrative, then look for reasons. I see complexity as an enemy, so I’ll keep it simple: if unsure, do less; if certain, then add. That’s all for now.