Lately, watching whale addresses has been a bit exhausting. I’ve realized that the easiest mistake isn’t misreading the direction, but failing to distinguish whether they are building a position or hedging. In other words, the same large buy-in could just be adding to spot holdings, or it could be that they’ve already opened a reverse position in futures to lock in risk. If you follow in, you might find that they can sleep soundly on both ends, while you get emotionally swept away wave after wave.

These days, there’s also talk about regional tax increases and compliance tightening and loosening at times. As deposit and withdrawal expectations shift, whale movements also seem more “like risk control” rather than “bullish.” I now prefer to wait until the market cools down a bit and trading isn’t so noisy before slowly picking up some large caps and infrastructure. Anyway, I’m not good at chasing rallies… As for those orders that suddenly seem ready to take off, are they signals or smoke? What do you all think?