Recently, I've seen people use changes in stablecoin supply to hard justify "ETF funds flowing in/out," and honestly, I'm a bit worried about this kind of narrative... Correlation doesn't really equal causation. An increase in stablecoins could mean that OTC traders are preparing to enter the market, or it could just be arbitrage, market making, cross-chain transfers, or even project teams moving funds around as incentives, looking lively but not necessarily new money.

The recent wave of new L1/L2 projects boosting TVL is back again. I can really empathize with veteran users who complain about "mining, selling, and dumping": on-chain data looks good in the short term, but that doesn't mean the ecosystem is truly strengthening; it might just be temporary staking driven by incentives.

Forget it, to put it plainly: don’t jump to conclusions just because two lines move together. I still stick to my old habits—if I can keep track of it, I do; if I can break it down into small steps, I break it down. I’d rather go slow than get caught up in the hype of "it looks like it's about to take off." Risks have always been there anyway.