📰 【Bitcoin rebounds but options market remains cautious: 25% chance of breaking $84k in May】

BlockBeats reports that on May 2nd, Bitcoin retook the $78k level, with overall market risk appetite improving, and the S&P 500 reaching a new all-time high on Friday. Despite Bitcoin rising 15% over the past 30 days, the options market is only pricing a 25% probability of Bitcoin surpassing $84,000 before the end of May. The derivatives market remains skeptical of further gains, but institutional spot demand remains robust. The price of a Bitcoin call option with a strike price of $84,000, expiring on May 29, is 0.0136 BTC, approximately $1,063. With 27 days until expiration, this data implies that Bitcoin will rise in May...

Is $78k enough to cause panic? The 25% probability given by these cowardly options traders is basically an insult to the bulls. I tell you, a 25% implied probability in quantitative models is a pure fat-tail arbitrage opportunity. Institutional spot holdings are well-fed, while retail traders are still guessing tops based on K-line charts. Once these options expire worthless, they'll finally understand what trend inertia really means.