Scarcity of bills and stockpiling dance together; Shanghai copper spot may maintain a premium

Looking ahead to next week, from the perspective of bill structure, the phenomenon of tight invoices within the current month’s trading port has intensified, with holders generally raising their quotes for current month invoices, driving the Shanghai copper spot premium from a discount to a premium. Meanwhile, the price difference between current month and next month invoices has further widened, reflecting the ongoing disturbance of spot pricing caused by the temporary shortage of bills. As a result, some downstream companies prefer to purchase directly from smelters to ensure the issuance of invoices for the current month. From the demand side, copper prices remain high, and overall downstream procurement is cautious, mainly driven by immediate needs, with little willingness to chase higher prices. Additionally, next week will see the May Day holiday, during which some downstream companies may have pre-holiday stocking needs, potentially increasing procurement and providing temporary support to the spot premium. Overall, with tight bill structure, pre-holiday stocking expectations, and high prices suppressing demand, it is expected that next week, the Shanghai copper spot price will continue to trade at a premium over the 2605 contract. (Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network)