Global energy market overview for April 27–May 2: Hormuz remains the key focus as oil holds a high-risk premium

📌 The global energy market was still dominated this week by the prolonged U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict and continued disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. Brent briefly moved above the $115/bbl area before easing back to around $108–111, while WTI stayed near $101–102/bbl, showing that the market is still pricing in a high supply-risk premium.
💡 The oil rally was not driven by geopolitical headlines alone, but also supported by real physical tightness. U.S. crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories all fell sharply, while tanker traffic through Hormuz remained far below normal levels. This has pushed the shortage risk beyond crude oil and into refined products such as diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline.
⚠️ The UAE’s exit from OPEC/OPEC+ is an important medium-term variable. In the short term, the bearish impact remains limited because Gulf flows are still constrained, but if Hormuz gradually reopens, the UAE’s ability to raise output could weaken OPEC’s supply discipline and create new pressure on the oil price structure.
🔎 The gas market showed clearer divergence. U.S. Henry Hub remained weak around $2.5–3.0/MMBtu, supported by domestic oversupply, favorable weather, and high production. By contrast, LNG markets in Asia and Europe remained more sensitive due to their reliance on Gulf flows, meaning competition for spot cargoes could stay intense if the disruption continues.
⏱️ The macro impact is also becoming more visible as higher energy prices raise inflation risks again, especially for large energy-importing economies in Asia. However, demand is also showing signs of pressure in transport and refining, creating a delicate balance between supply shortages and demand destruction.
✅ Next week, the market will focus on the OPEC+ meeting, U.S.-Iran negotiation updates, EIA inventory data, and tanker flows through Hormuz. The short-term setup still favors oil holding a high price floor with strong volatility, while correction risk would increase if there are clearer signals of a ceasefire or a reopening of shipping flows.
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