I wonder how gold behaves against the backdrop of all this macroeconomic uncertainty. I've been following the yellow metal market for a long time, and what’s happening now looks like a classic bullish scenario that many are not noticing.

If you look at the long-term gold charts over the past 50 years, a clear picture emerges: after a long consolidation from 2013 to 2023, a powerful cup with handle has formed. This is no coincidence — long reversal patterns usually lead to strong bullish markets. Gold has already started accelerating at the beginning of 2024, and the trend continues to develop.

Regarding specific figures, the gold forecast for the next 5 years looks as follows: in 2025, the metal should approach $3,100, in 2026, the target is around $4,000, and the peak price by 2030 could reach $5,000. Interestingly, gold is already setting new historical highs in all global currencies, not just in dollars. This happened back in early 2024 — a signal that the bull market has seriously begun.

Why am I so confident in this scenario? The main factor is monetary dynamics. M2 and the consumer price index are growing quite steadily, though not explosively. Historically, gold moves in tandem with inflation expectations, and currently, these expectations are in a long-term upward channel. This doesn’t mean prices will skyrocket — rather, we’re expecting a gentle, steady growth.

Against this backdrop, the euro looks pretty good, and treasury bonds also support gold. The only thing that’s a bit concerning is positioning in the futures market. Commercial traders hold stretched short positions, which could slightly limit the potential for short-term growth. But this doesn’t change the overall picture.

Many analysts and major banks are now giving their forecasts for gold over the next 5 years. Goldman Sachs predicts $2,700 by early 2025, ANZ expects $2,805 by the end of the year, BofA talks about $2,750 with potential up to $3,000. The consensus around $2,700–$2,800 is quite solid. But I believe these figures might be conservative — if inflation expectations continue to rise, gold could move faster.

Overall, the forecast for gold over the next 5 years remains bullish, although acceleration is likely to happen more in the second half of this decade. Weak periods will occur, pullbacks are inevitable, but the trend is upward. If the price drops below $1,770 and stays there, the bullish scenario weakens — but that’s very unlikely given the current dynamics of money supply and inflation expectations.

Silver also deserves to be on the radar, by the way. It usually starts moving more aggressively in the late stages of a gold bull market. The gold-to-silver ratio over 50 years shows that silver could explode around the $50 level, which might happen in 2025–2026.

In any case, gold remains one of the most interesting assets to monitor in this cycle. Macroeconomic indicators, geopolitical situation, central bank movements — all of these will influence prices. But the fundamentals for a bullish market look solid.