Shouchuang Futures: US-Iran negotiations are temporarily at a standstill, and oil prices continue to rise

The second round of US-Iran negotiations has still not been confirmed, and oil prices continue to rise. The core factor driving the surge in oil prices is the deadlock in US-Iran talks and the US’s announcement of a complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistani diplomats stated that progress in US-Iran negotiations is very slow. The US remains committed to maintaining the maritime blockade against Iran, while Iran considers the US blockade an obstacle to negotiations, which is currently the biggest point of contention between the two sides. From the spot market perspective, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is still ongoing, leading to difficulties in exporting Middle Eastern crude oil and high-sulfur fuel oil along the Persian Gulf coast. On the other hand, Russia was also forced to cut oil production in April due to the impact of Ukrainian drone attacks on ports and refineries, as well as the disruption of Russia’s last oil pipeline to Europe. Although the short-term outlook is somewhat bullish, the market generally believes that the US and Iran will eventually negotiate, so both long and short positions carry risks. It is recommended to wait and see. (Chuangchuang Futures)