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May 1st (Friday), spot gold showed a pattern of rallying then pulling back, with high-level fluctuations and a slightly weak trend; the daily candle closed lower, ending a two-day rally. Asian session: slight gap up followed by oscillation upward, reaching a high of around $4,630; European session: continued weakness, breaking below the key support of $4,600; US session: accelerated decline, approaching the intraday low of $4,560; late session: slight stabilization.
Driving factors:
1. The rebound of the US dollar and US Treasury yields: Japan's intervention in the currency market subsided, the dollar index rose, suppressing gold prices.
2. Technical breakdown: losing the $4,600 level triggered stop-loss sell orders, increasing short-term selling pressure.
3. Profit-taking at high levels: after rebounding from $4,540 to $4,646 on April 30, longs largely exited the market.
Market outlook: Next week, gold is likely to be a week of trend decision: the first half of the week will be mainly oscillating weakly with bottom testing; after the data releases in the second half, the direction will be set. $4,500 is the critical level of life and death, and $4,700 is the dividing line between strength and weakness. Overall, the trend is more inclined to oscillate upward, but a rebound needs to break through key resistance to open up upside space. The Federal Reserve interest rate decision midweek and non-farm payrolls on Friday are likely turning points, probably “first bottoming out and then rebounding, followed by a breakout or breakdown”!
This article does not constitute any investment advice!!!!