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BOJ Risk Scenario Sees Core Inflation Near 3% for Two Years on Weak Yen and High Oil
A Bank of Japan risk scenario shows core inflation could stay near 3% for two fiscal years if oil prices stay high and the yen weakens, above the 2% target. The scenario assumes oil at about $105 per barrel by year-end, a 10% yen depreciation, and a 20% stock decline, while the baseline forecast sees core CPI at 2.8% in the current fiscal year ending March 2027 and 2.3% in the next fiscal year.