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Just came across this interesting historical framework that Samuel Benner developed back in 1875 about periods when to make money in financial markets. The guy was basically trying to map out economic cycles and predict when boom, recession, and panic periods would hit. Pretty fascinating stuff if you think about how traders could use this to understand periods when to make money.
So here's how it breaks down. Benner identified three main cycles that repeat roughly every 18-20 years or so. First, there are the panic years – those financial crisis moments when everything goes sideways. We're talking market collapses, widespread fear, people getting liquidated. The theory suggests years like 1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, 2019, and projected forward to 2035, 2053. During these periods, the advice is pretty clear: don't panic sell. Hold your nerve.
Then you've got the boom years where the real money moves happen. These are the periods when to make money by selling, honestly. Markets are recovering hard, prices are climbing, sentiment is strong. Years like 1928, 1943, 1953, 1960, 1968, 1973, 1980, 1989, 1996, 2000, 2007, 2016, 2020 – these are supposedly when you want to be taking profits and moving assets.
The third type is the recession and decline years. Prices get beaten down, economy slows, everything feels gloomy. But here's the thing – this is actually when smart money accumulates. You're buying stocks, land, commodities at cheap prices. Then you hold through until the boom arrives and you exit at the top. Historical examples point to years like 1924, 1931, 1942, 1951, 1958, 1969, 1978, 1985, 1996, 2005, 2012, 2023, and projected to 2032, 2040, 2050.
The basic playbook is pretty simple: buy low during recessions, wait for boom periods, then sell high. Avoid getting shaken out during panic years. It's a long-term cycle perspective on periods when to make money.
Now, I'll be real with you – this is a historical pattern based on cyclical thinking, not some law of physics. Markets get influenced by so much: geopolitics, wars, technological breakthroughs, policy shifts, black swan events. So while Benner's framework gives you a useful lens for thinking about long-term market rhythms, don't treat it like gospel. It's more about understanding the broader patterns and being strategic about when you enter and exit positions rather than trying to time every single move.