I've been thinking about this eternal topic in the crypto world—what rules do the bull and bear market cycles actually follow.

Honestly, I've seen many predictions on social media, but few truly understand this cycle. I’ve analyzed historical data and found that there are indeed patterns to observe. In 2013, 2017, and 2021, the crypto space experienced clear bull market peaks, and between these years, there were varying lengths of bear market corrections.

Based on past bull and bear market cycles, it generally takes about four years to complete a full rotation. But the key lies in the details—bull markets usually last around six months to a year, while bear markets can drag on longer, sometimes even extending to two years. This asymmetrical time distribution is driven by market psychology.

Bitcoin’s halving events have a significant impact on this cycle. In the past two halvings, BTC’s price increased over tenfold, which led whales and institutions to treat halving as a great excuse for speculation. They create volatility before and after halving—dump to induce panic, then quickly rally to attract retail investors. I’ve seen the halving in mid-2024 follow this pattern quite closely.

Interestingly, if we assume an average of 33 months to start a new bull run, the probability of history repeating itself remains quite high. But now that we’re already in 2026, with changing market conditions and policy backgrounds, relying solely on historical cycles for prediction is becoming less reliable.

My feeling is that bull and bear cycles do exist, but they are not mechanically repetitive. Policy adjustments, global economic conditions, technological advancements—all these factors can alter the length and magnitude of cycles. The deep bear market in 2023 did scare many people, but by 2024, whales and institutional funds started to position themselves, and market sentiment gradually shifted from extreme pessimism to cautious optimism.

The current market is no longer dominated by retail investors alone; institutional participation has clearly increased, changing the rhythm of bull and bear cycles. Previously, sentiment and FOMO alone could drive the market, but now, one must also consider capital flows, policy changes, and technological developments.

For investors, understanding the bull and bear cycles is important, but it’s even more crucial not to be fooled by them. During bull markets, over-optimism is common; during bear markets, excessive pessimism prevails—that’s human nature. Those who can survive long-term in crypto are the ones who stay vigilant during bull runs and patient during bear markets. Always be prepared for the next cycle’s challenges, and maintain a clear understanding of the projects you hold—that’s the right approach.