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The Federal Reserve's balance sheet shrank by $7,469,000,000 in one week!
▪️Market expectations (Federal Reserve rate):
- PAUSE until September 2027.
▪️Logan, Federal Reserve Chair:
- Supported a pause on the rate, but opposed the signal that the next move is more likely to be a cut.
- I don't think a rate cut is appropriate at this time.
- Inflation has remained above the target for a long time, and there are doubts about when it will return to 2%.
- The next step for the Fed could be either an increase or a decrease in the rate.
▪️Bank of America:
- A rate cut is only possible if inflation and the labor market cool down.
- The conflict in the Middle East affects expectations for the Fed's monetary policy.
- The energy factor is becoming a key driver of inflation.
▪️Morgan Stanley:
- The threshold for rate cuts has risen.
- The Fed is prepared to hold a tight monetary policy for longer.
▪️J.P. Morgan:
- Voting within the Fed showed an increase in disagreements.
- The wording of the statement has become more neutral.
▪️Charles Schwab:
- The Fed is likely to take a pause for several meetings.
- There is even discussion in the market about the risk of tightening.