These days, I see people using the formula "Stablecoin supply increases = about to take off" again, and I can't help but laugh a little... A lot of stablecoins don't necessarily mean everyone is rushing to buy; they might just be sitting on the sidelines, or everyone is afraid of volatility and hiding out first.

The same goes for ETFs; inflows don't necessarily mean everyone is buying spot, and it doesn't mean the small coins you hold will be evenly distributed. To put it simply, the correlation looks impressive, but the causal chain often breaks in the middle at that bunch of operations where "I don't even know who's doing what."

Recently, some places have tightened taxes/regulations, and the psychological expectations for deposits and withdrawals immediately become subtle: some people run early, others simply stay put. Anyway, I now look at the data and take a moment to stay calm—don't rush to treat the chart like a crystal ball, just do this for now.